Most millennials, gen Z oppose more government spending, higher carbon taxes: poll (2024)

OTTAWA — A majority of younger Canadians believe that older generations are rigging things to benefit themselves, while making life harder for millennial and generation Z voters, and most aren’t convinced the recent Liberal budget will help matters.

They also aren’t big fans of plans for more government spending and higher carbon taxes. Nor are they confident that the government’s recent massive subsidy announcements for EV and battery plants will benefit them.

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A Postmedia-Leger poll released this week finds that 54 per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 39 agreed with the notion that their parents’ generation is “rigging the system for their benefit.”

The Liberal government had pitched its recent budget as ensuring “generational fairness,” raising capital gains taxes and spending, to win back support from these cohorts, who polls suggest have deserted the Liberals en masse. But the poll finds only four per cent of younger Canadians strongly agreed that the budget “will make things fairer” for their generation, with 16 per cent of respondents saying they somewhat agreed.

Twenty-six per cent of younger Canadians either strongly or somewhat disagreed that the budget will make things fairer, however. And another 29 per cent said they don’t know if the budget will make any difference in fairness.

The question also revealed a large gender divide, with only two per cent of women strongly agreeing that the budget will make things fairer, compared to six per cent of men. Women are far more likely to say they don’t know if the budget will help them, with 37 per cent unsure, compared only 22 per cent of men.

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The poll shows that millennials and gen Z also aren’t in favour of more government spending, something the Liberals had promised in the April budget. The poll shows that 56 per cent said the government shouldn’t spend more money than it is currently spending.

Thirty-four per cent of gen Z and millennial voters say want the government to spend less money, agreeing that they are “worried about generations like mine being overly taxed in future to pay for today’s debt.” Another 22 per cent say spending should stay at current levels.

And they’re not particularly enthusiastic about the Liberal government’s massive subsidies for electric vehicles and battery plants. Only 32 per cent of gen Z and millennials agreed the handouts for auto and battery makers will “be of significant benefit” to their generation.

This week saw the Liberals devastated by a by-election loss to Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul’s, a formerly solidly urban safe seat, which is widely being seen as a clear sign that voters everywhere, even in once-friendly Liberal territory, are fed up with the government.

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The Liberal candidate was the former chief of staff of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Freeland had campaigned heavily in the riding.

The frustration of younger Canadians is heavily centred around runaway housing prices that have put ownership out reach for many in the younger generation, said Aaron Wudrick, the domestic policy director at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

“Housing is definitely part of it, because that’s the most obvious symbol of your life stages, if you do all the things you’re supposed to do. You get a job, you save your money, you should be able to buy a house,” said Wudrick.

“And most Canadians now obviously can’t do that. Even professionals — never mind working-class people — unless they have support from the parents,” he said.

The poll shows younger Canadians are more likely to be pessimistic about their chances of ever buying real estate. Forty-eight per cent who don’t already own a home think it is unlikely they will ever buy a house or a condo, with 45 per cent saying it’s likely.

Younger people in British Columbia and Ontario, two provinces where housing is the least affordable in Canada, are far more likely to say that older generations are rigging the system and making it harder for younger generations. In B.C., 61 per cent of younger voters agree with that statement and 57 per cent in Ontario agreed.

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In Alberta, where average incomes are higher and housing is cheaper, only 49 per cent of younger Canadians think the older generation is rigging the system.

Wudrick said the Liberals are “playing catch-up” on housing and other affordability issues against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has been campaigning on it since his party’s leadership race in 2022.

“The (Liberals are) making big moves on immigration and housing but none of this stuff is going to bear any fruit for years. So I think it’s not going to help them much politically,” said Wudrick.

“The budget — if it was really directed at this generation — didn’t really move the needle. We’ve seen that in some of the recent public polling on the federal ballot, including ours. The Liberal numbers didn’t budge at all,” said Leger vice-president Andrew Enns.

Enns said the Liberals are suffering from a common problem of long-tenured governments, where many people have entirely tuned them out. Along with the challenges of reaching younger voters, who consume unconventional and varied media sources, there is likely a growing portion of this population that is unreachable to them.

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The Liberals have tried to branch out by inviting social media “influencers” to the budget announcement and booking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on some high-profile American podcasts.

The poll finds that millennial and gen Z voters are also unhappy with the Liberal government’s plans to keep raising the carbon tax, with most saying it should be frozen or cut. Only 19 per cent of younger Canadians think the carbon tax should continue to increase as planned, with 23 per cent saying it should be frozen at the current level. Fifteen per cent of respondents said it should be reduced from the current tax of $80/tonne and 26 per cent said it should be eliminated entirely.

Gen Z and millennial voters overwhelmingly tell pollsters they had a harder time starting their adult life than their parents. Sixty-eight per cent said they had a hard time, while just 13 per cent said it was about the same and another 13 per cent said it was easier for them than their parents.

Wudrick said the government may be running out of ideas for reaching these voters.

“What is this budget? It’s more spending. And if that was the solution, why wouldn’t things have gotten better already over the last eight years? It’s not like this government’s been holding back with spending,” said Wudrick.

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The poll was conducted May 24-26 via using an online panel method, with a sample size of 938 of Canadians aged 18 to 39 who are eligible to vote. A comparable probability sample would yield a margin of error of no greater than plus or minus 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

National Post
stthomson@postmedia.com

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