Team USA is a heavy favorite to win Olympic gold in Paris, but the competition around the world is stronger than ever. Canada and France are both extremely talented, with rosters filled with high-level NBA players. Germany, Serbia, Australia and Greece are also plenty capable, and Spain and South Sudan are going to be tough. With that in mind, this should be one of the most exciting sports to watch at the Olympic Games, so we’re going to dive into the action. The schedule for Tuesday, July 30th features four games. Keep reading for some analysis on all of them.
Look out for whether I label a game with LEAN or BET. I’ll be breaking down every game, but I’m not betting each one —or counting them for my record. The record below only includes games labeled BET, which will also make their way to the Pro Picks page. I’ll go a bit longer on the games I’m betting.
Olympic Basketball Record: 1-1 (+0.10 units)
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Greece vs. Spain – 5:00 am ET
Spain can be really tough to cover. Willy Hernangomez is a good back-to-the-basket center and Santi Aldama is a forward that can shoot the 3 and put the ball on the floor a little. Those two will be the focal points for Spain offensively. The team also has a bunch of other players that can contribute, including the legendary Sergio Llull who is up there in age but can still be a floor-spacing weapon off the bench. The problem is that Spain really struggles defensively. This team was eaten alive by Jock Landale in a 92-80 loss in its Group A opener, and five Boomers ended up scoring in double figures. Australia shot 50.7% from the floor and went 12 for 24 from behind the 3-point line. That makes it hard not to like Greece in this game.
If guys like Landale, Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels were getting wherever they wanted against this defense, imagine what Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to do. Antetokounmpo should feast in transition and isolation, as Spain doesn’t have anybody with the length, strength or athleticism to cover him. And if Spain overreacts by sending help his way, Antetokounmpo will get the ball out quickly and trust in his guards to knock down shots or find the open man. Greece’s offense might have looked a little wonky in its first game here, but that was against a Canada team that has some real dogs on the defensive end.
Things are going to look a lot better in this matchup and I like Greece’s size on the defensive end. Just getting hands up and being active will be big against this Spain team.
Bet: Greece -4 (-110)
Australia vs. Canada – 7:30 am ET
Canada is really close to being a gold-worthy team, but the group is missing a legitimate center. A player like Zach Edey could have really helped, but the Memphis Grizzlies didn’t want him to play and he seemed fine with that decision. But without somebody that can really throw around some weight in the paint, Canada could struggle to comfortably beat teams like Australia. Landale might not be a player that plays heavy minutes in the NBA, but he has been productive throughout his career and he thrives in an international setting. Landale can score around the basket, make the occasional jumper and also serve as a decent source of playmaking. He’s also just an absolute load around the basket, as he’s strong and plays with intensity. Don’t be surprised if he really impacts this game.
Australia also happens to have some big playmaking wings, meaning the team is built a little like Canada. Sure, nobody on Australia is as good as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the overall group is rock solid. I also like that the Boomers have Daniels to throw on Gilgeous-Alexander. Nobody is really capable of defending him on an island, but Daniels is a good perimeter defender with great length. He’ll make the Oklahoma City Thunder star work for everything. Patty Mills should also make his mark on this game. Canada has some great on-ball defenders, but Australia does a great job of getting Mills quality looks through off-ball actions.
I do think Canada will end up pulling this one out. There’s a pretty sizable mismatch in the talent department, and Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray will be the two best closers on the court in crunch time. But Australia is always tough and should hang around.
Bet: Australia +6.5 (-115)
France vs. Japan – 11:15 am ET
France recovered from a slow start to earn a 78-66 win over Brazil in its first game. Victor Wembanyama quickly established himself as the alpha for Les Bleus. In his Olympic debut, Wembanyama went 7 for 13 from the floor and finished with 19 points, nine rebounds, four steals and three blocks. He was a two-way terror for France.
Wembanyama, along with Rudy Gobert, should dominate the boards against a Japan team that really lacks any semblance of size. The biggest starter for Japan is Josh Hawkinson, a 6-foot-10 forward that played for Washington State and now plays pro ball for Sun Rockers Shibuya. He’s joined in the frontcourt by Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe, two perimeter-oriented forwards. One of those two will be guarded by Wembanyama and they’ll fire away from 3 to try and pull the phenom away from the basket. But Wembanyama is quick enough to get out there and contest shots while not being at risk of being blown by on drives. And Hawkinson isn’t going to have much success around the basket against Gobert, the best interior defender in the NBA. France also has Nicolas Batum’s length to cover whoever Wembanyama doesn’t pick up. And France also has a solid defensive backcourt —especially when Frank Ntilikina plays heavy minutes.
I have no real concerns with France heading into this game, but winning by 18 could be tough for a team that lacks offensive firepower in the backcourt. So, I think the best way to play this game is by going with the Under on Japan’s team total of 72.5. France isn’t going to want to play very fast here. And Les Bleus can be trusted to lock down defensively.
Bet: Japan Team Total Under 72.5 (-115)
Germany vs. Brazil – 3:00 pm ET
This is the only game that I don’t feel strongly about. I like Germany’s chances of winning comfortably, but I think they’re laying too many points. If I had to bet something here, I’d probably go with the Over. Germany looked pretty content to get up and down the court with Japan in the Group B opener, with the two teams combining to score 174 points. Brazil also put up 66 points against a France squad that I’m super high on defensively. And Brazil could have shot the ball a bit better. Look for Marcelinho Huertas to have a lot more success conducting the Brazil offense against Germany than he did against the length of France. But at the same time, the 41-year-old will struggle with Dennis Schroder’s speed on the other end, which is why I tend to think this will turn into something of a shootout. I’m just not interested in getting involved.
Lean: Over 166.5 (-110)
