FAU Expert: Almost 300 Banks Are at Higher Risk of Failure (2024)

FAU Expert: Almost 300 Banks Are at Higher Risk of Failure (1)

Warning signs of Republic First Bank’s failure were evident for a while, and now more banks across the country are exhibiting similar signs of a risk of failure, according to a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.

Warning signs of Republic First Bank’s failure were evident for a while, and now more banks across the country are exhibiting similar signs of a risk of failure, according to a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.

The risk factors of Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank’s potential to fail were hiding in plain sight as banks must report the market values of their securities in their quarterly regulatory filings, according to Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. Republic First Bank reported unrealized securities losses in excess of its equity as early as June 2022.

State regulators closed Republic First Bank in April 2024, marking the first bank failure of the year. Fulton Bank entered into an agreement with the FDIC to purchase most of Republic First’s $6 billion in assets and to assume most of its $4 billion in deposit liabilities.

“The same risk factors, unrealized losses on investment securities and heavy reliance upon uninsured deposits, that brought down Silicon Valley Bank also brought down Republic First,” Cole said. “These risk factors triggered concerns of both investors and depositors about the viability of the banks when the banks announced efforts to raise additional capital before actually securing these additional funds.”

Other banks in the country could be at risk of failure as unrealized securities losses reached $478 billion, the most recently available data shows. Already, 40 banks with more than $1 billion in assets reported unrealized security losses greater than 50% of their equity capital. More than 200 smaller banks have done the same.

During 2020, bank deposits grew by more than 20% ($3 trillion) as depositors placed their government-funded pandemic transfer payments into their bank accounts; during 2021, deposits grew by another 15% ($2 trillion). Without profitable lending opportunities during the pandemic, banks put more than $2 trillion into investment securities, an increase of more than 50%. Banks were searching for yield, so they invested in the longest maturities available to them.

Since the end of 2023, the 10-year treasury yield jumped from 3.86% to 4.5% as the Federal Reserve Board has been steadily raising rates to combat inflation. As rates go up, the value of long-maturity securities decreases, inflicting huge losses on many banks.

Considering rising interest rates, upcoming data should show that losses have ballooned to more than $600 billion.

“Those numbers of banks reporting security losses 50% greater than their equity capital will swell because of the rise in interest rates since the end of last year,” Cole said. “We could see additional banks fail and will have to see if this will ultimately lead to another banking crisis.”

-FAU-

FAU Expert: Almost 300 Banks Are at Higher Risk of Failure (2024)

FAQs

Are banks at risk of failure? ›

More than 60 of the largest banks in the country are at increased risk of failure due to their commercial real estate (CRE) exposures, according to a data analysis from a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.

What banks have failed in 2024? ›

State regulators closed Republic First Bank in April 2024, marking the first bank failure of the year. Fulton Bank entered into an agreement with the FDIC to purchase most of Republic First's $6 billion in assets and to assume most of its $4 billion in deposit liabilities.

What is the main cause of bank failure? ›

During a recession, banks are more likely to experience loan defaults, lower profits, and higher operating costs. If a bank is not adequately prepared to weather an economic downturn, it may not survive. Banks are also vulnerable to fraud and mismanagement, both from within and outside the organization.

How many banks fail on average? ›

Bank failures happen more often than you might think—there have been 569 in the U.S. since January 1, 2000. That's an average of about 25 per year. But the back-to-back collapses of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in early 2023, followed by First Republic Bank in May, were unique in more ways than one.

What is the biggest risk for banks? ›

The major risks faced by banks include credit, operational, market, and liquidity risks. Prudent risk management can help banks improve profits as they sustain fewer losses on loans and investments.

Why are banks too big to fail? ›

Too big: The notion that some financial institutions are just too large, and distort markets or threaten financial stability. To fail: A bank is so interconnected with other institutions that its failure would create panic or broad financial instability.

Which is the safest bank? ›

JPMorgan Chase, the financial institution that owns Chase Bank, topped our experts' list because it's designated as the world's most systemically important bank on the 2023 G-SIB list. This designation means it has the highest loss absorbency requirements of any bank, providing more protection against financial crisis.

Which US banks are in trouble? ›

Additional Resources
Bank NameBankCityCityClosing DateClosing
Signature BankNew YorkMarch 12, 2023
Silicon Valley BankSanta ClaraMarch 10, 2023
Almena State BankAlmenaOctober 23, 2020
First City Bank of FloridaFort Walton BeachOctober 16, 2020
56 more rows
Apr 26, 2024

Which banks are riskiest? ›

These Banks Are the Most Vulnerable
  • First Republic Bank (FRC) . Above average liquidity risk and high capital risk.
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) . Above average capital risk.
  • KeyCorp (KEY) . Above average capital risk.
  • Comerica (CMA) . ...
  • Truist Financial (TFC) . ...
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) . ...
  • Zions Bancorporation (ZION) .
Mar 16, 2023

What happens to your savings if the banks collapse? ›

If your bank closes, you should receive notification of what will happen to your money from the FDIC or NCUA, the acquiring bank or both. You'll automatically have an account at the new bank, or the FDIC or NCUA will issue you a payment returning your funds.

Who wins when a bank fails? ›

Here's what typically happens. The FDIC announces that the bank is closed, and the FDIC is appointed as its receiver so it can help use the bank's assets to pay depositors and creditors. In most cases, the FDIC will try to find another banking institution to acquire the failed bank.

Why are US banks collapsing? ›

Consulting firm Klaros Group analyzed about 4,000 U.S. banks and found 282 banks face the dual threat of commercial real estate loans and potential losses tied to higher interest rates.

Are banks in trouble in 2024? ›

Moody's has a negative outlook on the U.S. banking industry for 2024. Fitch gave the sector a deteriorating outlook, expecting a “moderate amount” of bank failures over the course of the year.

What is the largest bank to fail in the US? ›

The collapse of Washington Mutual (WaMu) in 2008 stands out as the largest bank failure in U.S. history, according to the FDIC.

What is the largest bank in the United States? ›

1. JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan Chase, or Chase Bank, is the biggest bank in America with nearly $3.4 trillion in assets. It boasts a vast network of over 4,800 physical branches and more than 15,000 ATMs.

Which U.S. banks are in trouble? ›

Additional Resources
Bank NameBankCityCityClosing DateClosing
Signature BankNew YorkMarch 12, 2023
Silicon Valley BankSanta ClaraMarch 10, 2023
Almena State BankAlmenaOctober 23, 2020
First City Bank of FloridaFort Walton BeachOctober 16, 2020
56 more rows
Apr 26, 2024

What banks are most at risk? ›

These Banks Are the Most Vulnerable
  • First Republic Bank (FRC) . Above average liquidity risk and high capital risk.
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) . Above average capital risk.
  • KeyCorp (KEY) . Above average capital risk.
  • Comerica (CMA) . ...
  • Truist Financial (TFC) . ...
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) . ...
  • Zions Bancorporation (ZION) .
Mar 16, 2023

What banks are least likely to fail? ›

Summary: Safest Banks In The U.S. Of June 2024
BankForbes Advisor RatingATM Network
Chase Bank5.015,000+ Chase ATMs
Bank of America4.215,000+ ATMs in the U.S.
Wells Fargo Bank4.011,000
Citi®4.065,000
1 more row
Jun 5, 2024

Is Bank of America safe from collapse? ›

While there are always risks involved in the banking industry, Bank of America does not appear to be in imminent danger of collapse. However, customers and investors should always monitor the bank's financial health and risk profile and stay informed of any changes or developments that may affect the bank's stability.

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