NFL Picks Week 3: Matthew Stafford > Tom Brady? (2024)

Broncos over Jets. I know, I know, I’m not getting any degree of difficulty points by choosing a -600 favorite to beat the Jets, but the category is “pick I like,” not “pick I’m especially proud of.” My charter membership on Team Teddy Bridgewater may cloud my judgment as to how good he’s actually been, but the fact remains he’s throwing longer passes than ever and generally killing it. He’ll face a New York defense that allowed his old team, the Panthers, to throw for 279 yards and a touchdown without breaking much of a sweat two weeks ago.

It’ll be pretty much the opposite for Zach Wilson, who signed up for a fun, campy haunted house when he declared for the NFL Draft but has been dropped into one of those hardcore, nightmarish ones that make you sign a waiver before entering by landing with the Jets. The Patriots forced him into a universe where he had an equal number of interceptions (four) and completions (four) at one point and that still qualified as an improvement over his first two drives (two passes, two picks). Now he gets the Broncos, who haven’t gotten a ton from their pass rush — they rank in the league’s bottom 10 in sacks and QB pressures — but have still held opposing quarterbacks to a 65.5 passer rating thanks to a smothering secondary.

Packers over 49ers. This is another pretty chalk-y week of football without a ton of upset potential. As of Friday, the only two teams I’ve picked with the + designation on the odds sheet are Los Angeles and Green Bay.

I’m probably reading too much into the Packers’ second half dominance of a bad Lions team. Green Bay finally got its house in order after spending the first six quarters of its season either getting boat-raced by the Saints — who’d go on to record 128 yards of total offense the following week — or waging a losing battle against Detroit, which is like picking a fight with the saddest mom at the wine bar and getting your teeth knocked in.

San Francisco has all the tools to exploit the Packers’ glaring weaknesses. A Nick Bosa-led pass rush can take advantage of David Bahktiari’s absence and two different rookies in starting o-line roles. A stable of playmaking wideouts and tight ends can overwhelm a top-heavy secondary. Trent Williams leads a Niners’ offensive line capable of diverting a trickling pass rush with one extremely unimpressive sack on its resume to date.

"hey, how did the Packers get their first sack of the season?"

uh, well pic.twitter.com/yQ2l1siKvV

— Christian D'Andrea needs help to buy Ale Asylum (@TrainIsland) September 21, 2021

As much as Jimmy Garoppolo’s presence feels like a point in Green Bay’s favor, the Packers just struggled with another iffy quarterback with limited downfield throwing capability when it allowed Jared Goff to piece them up for much of last week’s game. Throw in San Francisco’s home-field advantage and this seems academic, right?

Well, no. Nothing is academic when you’ve got an angry Aaron Rodgers on one side, playing against the team for whom he grew up rooting. The same team that chose Alex Smith over him way back in the 2005 NFL Draft. No dude in the world holds a grudge quite like A-a-ron, who has an 18:2 TD:INT ratio in eight games against his hometown(ish) club. He was last seen throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns against them in 2020.

Yes, that was over an injury-riddled 49ers team, It still counts!

Ultimately I think Green Bay falls behind early, then relies on the playmaking of Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones to overcome a San Francisco club that’s been shaky against teams it could be reasonably expected to blow the doors off of. But if you’re gonna disagree with any of my picks in Week 3, this is a solid place to start.

Rams over Buccaneers. Am I a fool for counting out Touchdown Tom? History suggests yes, absolutely I am. But as wonderful as Brady’s been for roughly two decades, he’s typically good for a few clunkers per year. Sometimes it happens against Nick Foles. Other times it happens in the postseason, though not often. Sometimes it’s both!

This week he’s got to deal with a Rams’ defense that isn’t as deep as it’s been in years past, but still has a pair of headliners in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. BUT, the Rams’ secondary no longer has Troy Hill or John Johnson, and Tampa absolutely has the horsepower to just shift to whomever isn’t getting harassed by Ramsey any given down. Brady’s list of targets is hilariously stacked, meaning he can toggle between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski and OJ Howard etc., without losing much in terms of playmaking.

The Buccaneers have also been relentless against the run, in part because defensive tackle/independently-owned Arby’s franchise Vita Vea is an immoveable object in the middle of the line. Tampa’s only given up 3.0 yards per carry this fall (third-best in the NFL) and now faces a Rams’ rushing offense that has torched its preseason depth chart and will now likely start former Brady teammate Sony Michel as RB1 instead.

However! If there’s any quarterback you’d trust to perform without a running game, it’s former Detroit Lion Matthew Stafford. Stafford’s first home game in LA saw him dust the Bears for 321 yards, three touchdowns, and an absurd 12.4 yards per attempt. Now he’ll get a packed $5 billion complex behind him for the biggest game of the SoFi Stadium era to date. That’s enough to make me pick LA, even if the numbers don’t paint a rosy picture about the outcome.

Hey, you stuck it out this long, might as well reward yourself with a one that is cold (which is, if you are not a mid-30s dork who spent their formative years on Homestarrunner.com, a very stupid way to say “beer.”)

Much like an Earth, Wind, and Fire horn player, the waning days of September are my favorite time of the year. The weather begins to cool, weekends once reserved for sweaty lawn mowing sessions, sunburns, and general expectations of activity are inundated with football. Grocery shelves across the nation swell with the malty goodness of Oktoberfest beers.

Oktoberfests are a respite from tastebud-scalding double IPAs and a step up from the lightness of the hefeweizens and kolsches and light beers that tend to dominate the summer. They are, owing to German roots and often brewed according to Munich’s purity laws, the beer that most tastes like beer; smooth, balanced, and easy to drink in steins so massive your Fitbit counts each sip as a workout.

As a (transplanted) Wisconsinite, I am surrounded by brews. Very good brews, for the most part. In honor of one of the finest seasons in the universe and the greatest Swiss city in America, this week’s malted beverage is a classic from a brewery you’ve probably heard of, but are unable to purchase unless you’re inside Badger State limits: New Glarus Brewing’s Staghorn Oktoberfest Beer.

Staghorn is a toasty, flavorful beer that portends the brisk weather to come. It smells great and tastes better, with a crispness that fades into a slight sweet, bread-y finish. It’s perfect as a celebration beer. It’s also perfect for erasing the immediate memory of whatever Vanderbilt football game to which you may have foolishly subjected yourself.

While Spotted Cow is the New Glarus beer that gets all the love, Staghorn is one of the many NG offerings that’s even better than the flagship farmhouse ale. It’s a simple, classic recipe done perfectly. Drink it if you can find it, and if you can find it … well, welcome to the blessed beerland that is Wisconsin. Can I get you a Bloody Mary to go with that chaser?

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