Straight-up NFL Picks, Week 3: Figuring out which 0-2 teams will finally thrive (maybe you, Titans!) (2024)

This pick, staked upon the most obvious choice of the week, fell to 0-2 when Cincinnati couldn’t overcome Cooper Rush. Now we venture once more into the breach with an AFC powerhouse and a home team with a quarterback crisis.

Matt Ryan looked absolutely washed in Week 2, throwing three interceptions in a 24-0 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The presumptive returns of Michael Pittman Jr. and Shaq Leonard will provide a boost on both sides of the ball, but that won’t be enough to bridge the gap between a roster that got boat raced by 2021’s worst team and one that fended off a potent challenge from the Los Angeles Chargers last Thursday night.

The Indianapolis defense was the backdrop for the best day of Trevor Lawrence’s pro career last Sunday. Now that group gets Patrick Mahomes. Good luck!

Last week: 0-1 (.000, thanks Bengals!)
Season to date: 0-2 (.000)

The Broncos have the better quarterback — even if sportsbook think Russell Wilson is “cooked” — a top five defense and homefield advantage. And also a woefully unprepared head coach who makes decisions like the guy at your fantasy draft who doesn’t realize he’s on the clock until his pick is due in six seconds.

On the other hand, Jimmy Garoppolo is writing his redemption story but only had to throw 21 passes last week. Only three went more than 15 yards downfield and only one of them was complete. The defense behind him, however, is a top four unit that limited the Seattle Seahawks to 216 total yards last week; a number that would feel a lot more impressive if they weren’t the Seattle Seahawks.

So who wins out? Homefield advantage or the coaching advantage? Given it only took three quarters for the Broncos faithful to begin roasting Hackett at Mile High, I’m going to lean toward the latter. I don’t feel great about it, though.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 2-0 (1.000)

Tennessee was the AFC’s top seed in 2021 despite only having Derrick Henry for half the season. Now it’s a two-point home underdog to a fellow 0-2 team.

There’s a lot to worry about with the Titans, but this line feels like an overreaction to getting frog-stomped by the best team in the NFL. Tennessee struggled to drop its offense into gear because the Bills’ defense tore through its legitimately terrible run blocking like tissue paper and stopped Henry before he could even get started:

The Raiders don’t have that kind of run defense. Their guys are better than in years past, but trend closer to “average” than “elite.” That’s going to create space for Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball and, if Monday night’s game is any indication, rookie Treylon Burks to find seams downfield to catch it. That should help mitigate the frankly, entirely-too-scary thought that Davante Adams could be held in the care of Caleb Farley, who was mostly terrible at football in Week 2.

Both needs desperately need a win. Tennessee gets to play at home. That swings it for me.

A bonus nod to the Cardinals, who are 3.5-point home underdogs to the Rams. They were four-point dogs on the road against LA in Week 4 last season, then fell victim to early-season Kliff Kingsbury. I’m hoping that’ll pan out again, even if I don’t feel great about it.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 0-2 (.000)